Less than 12 months to 2011 general elections that will usher in leaders to steer the nation’s ship for the next four years, there is a pervasive lull in political activities following uncertainties . All of these may conspire to deny Nigerians of quality leadership and better conditions of living. Going by the preliminary timetable proposed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), elections are just between five to eight months away. Yet,

 it is hard to feel the ‘fever’ in the air. Political meetings and gatherings are almost non-existent. There are no recruitment campaigns among political parties to increase membership and secure support from electorates. No rallies to explain party manifestos and programmes. No sales of nomination forms among contestants for offices. No party conventions to elect aspirants for local, state and federal positions. No enlightenment campaigns to educate Nigerians on their civic responsibilities. In short, nothing to show the political class is prepared to slug it out at the polling stations.

Reasons for the lull

This political lull, observers say, is a serious threat to the success of 2011 elections and the nation’s democracy. Political parties, which keep swelling by the day, are clearly on recess, uncertain of which direction to go and afraid of taking any plunge into the nation’s dicey political terrains. Investigations revealed that many political parties are oblivious of which way to go based on many factors. One, INEC, the electoral body, has just been reconstituted with Prof. Attahiru Jega sworn in last Wednesday. The new INEC management, political experts have said will have to perform miracles to ensure the success of the forthcoming elections.

Political actors who spoke with our correspondent said they were waiting on the new INEC’s helmsman to come up with his blueprint before taking any step. "Moving now will amount to jumping the gun because you really cannot say which direction the man will move INEC. The electoral guidelines are not out yet and we cannot do much without any," Popoola Ajayi, Publicity Secretary of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) informed last Thursday. Pastor Abiodun Tawede, state chairman of Mega Progressive People’s Party (MPPP) in a phone conversation said his party was waiting for Jega’s blueprint to move. According to him, "when he brings out his own agenda, we will move". Even President Goodluck Jonathan, in his maiden presidential media chat, revealed he was waiting for the release of timetable by INEC before informing the country if he was going to stand for presidential elections next year.

While political parties await INEC’s guidelines, the entire nation is also waiting for the National Assembly to pass the amended electoral laws that will regulate the elections. Following groundswell of clamour for reforms in the nation’s electoral laws, federal lawmakers made some amendments to the current laws ahead of 2011. The amendments, which many said fall short of the Justice Uwais-led electoral reform committee, have not been passed to laws, meaning there are no legal guideposts for the 2011 elections. The amended versions have been passed to the state assemblies for ratification, a process some say may drag following withdrawal of the document by the House of Representatives citing adulteration. While the legal hurdles become higher for crossing, the preparedness of INEC itself remains a constant worry among Nigerians. They insist that the reconstitution of the electoral body less than a year to elections is counter-productive, leaving the body with little or no time for adequate preparations.

A major challenge facing the new-look INEC is the emergence of a credible voters’ register that will be as accurate as impeccable. Jega acknowledged this much during his acceptance speech, stating that having a register that includes all eligible voters in the country is a non-negotiable factor for credible elections. Dismissing the existing register as a fraud, many political stakeholders have demanded vehemently for a fresh register to guarantee the success of 2011 polls. How INEC can achieve this feat remains to be seen in view of the time constraint and enormous logistics involved.

Jega also hinted that the electoral body was going to undergo serious reorganisation to guarantee success. According to him, massive changes should be expected within INEC. Speaking with senior staff of the commission a few minutes after he was sworn in, the lecturer-turned-electoral officer said, "Obviously, a lot needs to be done to bring efficiency and effectiveness to INEC; we will do our best to ensure that efficiency and effectiveness is brought to bear on the functions of the Commission.

"We will also be very fair and just in ways in which we address the re-organisation that is necessary in the Commission. If you have no problem; if you have been competent and effective, you have nothing to fear and worry about and together, I believe, we will work in order to re-position the Commission to discharge its responsibilities in accordance with the constitution, the Electoral Act and other laws." But desirable as this re-organisation is, there are fears that it may hamper INEC’s preparedness in view of the short time lap between now and election.

Many political operators who spoke with our correspondent last week attributed the lull in political activities to lack of confidence in the electoral process. "There is no enough confidence in the system. Nobody wants to invest in the political space because there is so much uncertainty," Mr. Yinka Odumakin, Publicity Secretary of Afenifere Renewal group, offered. He said many parties are discouraged from getting involved because of PDP’s rigging machinery. "The PDP has muzzled the space and many parties are saying the elections might have been rigged already. So, why get involved," another politician stated. The crisis of confidence has also sent the electorates to sleep, making them apathetic to the process leading to 2011 polls.

Auwal Raffanjani, coordinator of Civil Society legislative Advocacy (CSLA), Abuja, said the lull should be blamed on "unserious political parties" in Nigeria. According to him, the bulk of the parties are mushrooms, which exist only in Abuja and on pages of newspapers. "They are not serious at all. It is sad but they do not exist to seize power but corner allocations. This is why they are never interested in what is going on," he stated. Fired with no rallies, campaigns and candidates for elections, most Nigerians are totally unawares of the impending elections, simply lamenting the woes visited on them by successive governments.

The grave implications

Political experts believe the implications of the emerging scenario are as grave as damaging to the nation’s democratic train. Dr. Jide Owodunni of the department of Political Studies, University of Jos, stated that the situation allows for power grabbers to hijack the nation’s political scene. "When things are like this less than a year to election then those who will emerge will not be the people’s true representatives. They are always the ones that can spend more money and fight their way to power because the process will then become rowdy," he informed. Since most of the parties have not had national conventions less than one year to major national elections, it is expected that the aspirants will eventually be hand-picked by power brokers and party stalwarts.

This will be a serious threat to internal democracy in parties, which has always endangered in most Nigeria’s parties. Then, imposition of candidates will lead to disenchantment and defection, a development that has become worrisome to keen political watchers in the nation. Even party flagbearers will have no time to market their candidature to the nooks and crannies of the nation in a bid to secure legitimate votes. Without much of this campaign time, the Nigerian people are shortchanged and deprived of the rights to know those standing for elections. "When we don’t know the candidates, how do we make informed choices? It then means we will only go to polls to vote for just anybody. That is democratic enslavement, which we have been subjected to over the years," Rafsanjani lamented.

During the Babangida-midwifed transitional programme, many Nigerians had the opportunity to feel the aspirants at close range. Political awareness and eagerness were running high, as the aspirants marshaled their policies and manifestoes. Debates were organised for aspirants to sell themselves and programmes. Therefore, when Nigerians voted in the aborted June 12, 1993 elections, they had no doubt what they were getting into. All of these are no where to be seen in this dispensation despite the fact that the nation has been practising democracy for over a decade. This is why, observers say, many aspirants are left with no choice than to settle for the rigging option. "Why campaign when you can rig? Why run after people when you can impose yourself on them? That is the new thinking now and it is a political culture that is destructive," Owodunmi lamented.

With the parties reluctant to pick their candidates from states to federal levels, observers say Nigerians should expect massive rigging come next year. And with high dosage of violence and all manners of electoral malpractices, Owodunni warned, "There is no way it won’t happen. I mean that is the next thing to do since the parties won’t present their candidates on good time, it becomes a struggle of might against might," he stated; The political culture in Nigeria is at variance with global standards. For instance, in the run-off to the 2008 American presidential elections, the whole world knew the leading candidates, at least over one and half years ahead. They watched with interest as the candidates slugged it out, attending town halls, political gatherings and building formidable structures. All of these are not there in Nigeria where the parties appear contented waiting till the last minute to unfold their candidates and agendas. This last-minute rush certainly portends serious negative implications for the nation’s teeming 140 million populace and the generations yet unborn.

 

Written by Sunday Oguntola - Thisday